Which spell does a recalled loanee get judged on?

Ayden Heaven, 25/26. Birmingham on loan to January, ours since. Every figure below is his real captured data. The arithmetic is RoleScoring's own — rebase, shrink toward the prior, divide by the reference, flip if lower is better — run live, so changing the dial moves the scores.

What was captured

The two spells disagree sharply.

The prior, and the squad he is measured against

Squad average headers won % Squad average fouls per 90 Squad best rating Shrinkage prior weight (k minutes)

k is #376's constant, 600 in the app. At k = 0 nothing is shrunk and a one-game sample scores as if it were a season.

Three ways to answer, same player

The working, column by column

Ours — Jan onward Birmingham — Aug to Jan Season total (what the app does today)

What happens as the shrinkage dial moves

k is the app's one defence against a small sample. Turn it up and a thin figure should be pulled harder toward the squad. Watch which column refuses to move.

Which spell does a recalled loanee get judged on?

What was captured

The prior, and the squad he is measured against

Three ways to answer, same player

The working, column by column

What happens as the shrinkage dial moves

What this settles